Super El Nino Study Co-Author Explains Excess Death Methodology
· World · Hindustan Times, rt
Researchers at the University of Chicago's Energy Policy Institute measured projected excess deaths for an upcoming super El Nino using two components: seasonal temperature forecasts and established temperature-mortality relationships. Co-author Emily Grover-Kopec stated that the study utilized projections from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, placing the data in the middle range of projected temperature anomalies. The team applied peer-reviewed temperature-mortality formulas previously published in the Quarterly Journal of Economics in November 2022. To keep the findings relevant for current administrative planning and early action, the researchers selected a 30-year baseline period from 1996 to 2025. Abhiyant Tiwari from the Natural Resources Defense Council noted that while the study serves as a useful early warning, the mortality figures should be treated cautiously as model-based projections.
Why it matters
The study provides public health planners and policymakers with model-based early warnings to allocate resources and execute timely interventions ahead of extreme weather events.
Read the original report — Hindustan Times
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